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Swami predictions for UFC 116

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Swami predictions for UFC 116

Postby Kensei » Sat Jul 03, 2010 11:14 am

After the post mortum is done from 115 we see that the cards can ebb and flow like the tide, good ones, bad ones and no guessing ahead of time if a card that looks like it is going to be stale turns out to be killer. The "wont answer any questions" mentality going into 115 turned out to be wrong and on a side not, the Swami was batting 1000 and a "rival" who writes for a local paper was hitting nothing but air! Sorry for the miss last card but I was a bit busy with family issues. Trying to chat up the bleacher report guy to see if my little guess work can find a home on that forum as well as this one! Wish me luck!!

The Next Card up is battle of the MONSTERS in Carwin and Lesnar, this card should prove a few interesting fights and show us finally who is the real heavy weight champ...okay, we know but it is fun to play!

UFC 116: JULY 3, 2010

Back to Vegas for the next card and the whole main card is stacked...can not say the same for the Under card, but we also get a few fun free fights on Spike...here is what the swami is calling!

Preliminary Bouts (Non-Televised):
-Daniel Roberts vs. Julio Paulino
Roberts is 0/1 in the UFC having dropped a fight to John Howard by KO in the first. Outside of this the human UFC fodder had a perfect 9/0 record. His claim to fame is his fight with Anthony Macias (a old UFC Vet). Roberts is supposed to be a submissions ace, but he forgot to tuck the chin and ate a big shot from Howard.
Being a bit more well rounded Paulino has a larger record and can swing as well as roll. His clame to fame include wins over Rob Yundt, Terry Martin and Rick Story. He also suffered a 1 UFC fight loss to Mike Peirce, But he managed to battle to a decision.
I am going with Paulino here by dull ass Decision!I almost dont care who stays around and who goes at this point. The Feild is way more open in this welterweight division.

-Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola
5/0 and a big win in the UFC against El-Turk, Jon has come a long way from the TUF show with his HIT squad team. This big boy is like a larger, softer version of Matt Hughes. Good punches, solid wrestling and the ability to smother those he can not out class on the feet with power.
Less soft looking and more "terminator" looking,this check fighter is more known across the pond than on USA shores. But the "almost Brit" brings some heavy hands with him. His subs are apparently good as he uses them enough. Look for him to NOT mind being taken down, till he feels the wrestling carpet that Americans have over the European counter parts.
I see Madsen taking Karlos down and giving him a GNP and LAP clinic on his way to a safe win over the Brit/Chek.

-Ricardo Romero vs. Seth Petruzelli
Romero may be a hot head, his only loss was a soccer kick to a downed opponent. Other than that the striker with good subs is going to be a hard test for visiting Seth Petruzelli. His perfect record is a strikers dream with subs and stand up battles peppered all over the place. Could be a great set up for Seths working his way back to the UFC.
What do you do with a guy like Petruzelli? Seth steps up when you want him to but drops fights to reletivly unheralded fighters like Matt hammil and the like. HE will move from Light heavy to Heavy in a second and can roll and rock at both weights. His claim to fame is putting away a guy white said was over hyped from the get go and he has a decent enough history...put him in against a striker who loves to Plaster fist to face!
After some time out of the UFC, all successfull, I am saying that the silver back will take out Romero and do it with good punching and great movement on his way to a TKO or Decision win.

-Dave Branch vs. Gerald Harris
Gerald Harris burst on to the scene with a good wrestling pedigree and a lot of athleticism. His style is basically wrestling with lots of heavy hands. His first few losses, and only two losses were in the IFL against Fabio Leopoldo and Benji Radach, both quality fighters. After the IFL fighter was homeless he wandered around the MMA world and took some odd fights, but then he moved to the UFC and took two quick fights by Heavy hands.
Dave Branch is a relatively unchallenged Renzo Gracie fighter who has taken his most recent fight by sub and works well with his hands.
I am thinking that Brach was brought in to feed Harris, I see Harris out wrestling Branch easy and possibly ending the fight with a big KO.

Preliminary Bouts (On Spike TV):
The prelim fights that are showing on the SPIKE show are very high quality fights, We have former main carder Grove against slugger and Cro Cop prodiegy Reljic and then we have big hitter Brendan Schaub against Brock Lessner training partner Chris Tuchscherer.

-Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer
TUF fighter Brendan Schaub will be putting his record of 5/1 to the test. Heavy hitting his way to an almost perfect record, Schaub has blasted most of his opponents with his heavy hands and talented feet, but he faced Buddha boy Roy Nelson and probably expected a take down, he lost when the walking advertisement for Burgerking landed an unexpected right that put his lights out. He came back and proved that he can bounce back by dropping Chase Gormley in the first minute of the first round.
Tuchscherer is way more experienced than Schaub but he also had the perfect style for Schab as long as he can stay on the outside. The grappling fighter has faced a few more big name fighters and even beat a young Krzysztof Soszynski, Travis Fulton, Tony Sylvester and worked his way through YAMMA and a loss to Travis Wiuff to face Toney Mendoza and Branden Lee Hinkle to earn a big shot at the UFC. He faced Gabe Gonzaga the first fight in the UFC and got destroyed. His last fight was a battle with equally pudgy and grappling friendly Tim Hague.
Don’t expect anything from Chris other than a few clubbing swings and a shoot or ten. I see Schaub KOing the Minnesota fighter or outworking the fighter from the North…er south of here but North of most people. ‘

-Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic
Da Spider is on the “undercard” for a good reason the team punishment fighter has not won a big win since he beat Evan Tanner at TUF finale #7. Yah he beat Jae Rosholt and Jason Day, but they were gimme fights that he was supposed to win, and both fighters did much better than I anticipated. Grove had such BIG potential starting out. Before TUF he had fights against Joe Riggs, Jay Carter, Hector Ramirez and was looking very good. He moved into the Team Punishment fraternity and looked to take off. He walked over Ed Herman and won the cheap plastic plaque and the last watch I saw given out! Then took out Chris Price and really impressed with a win over Alan Belcher. But that was the last of the big run for him. Patrick Cote and Jorege Rivera both took him out and made him look more than human, and Rivera broke that chin of his! Tanner and Day went down, with only Tanner being a shock, but then he got a bigger shot and Ricardo Almeida made him look like a Newbie. After his win to Rosholt he faced Mark Munoz. Munoz looked like he was having issues with his size and length advantage until the Pilipino wrecking machine DESTROYED him with a solid display of power vs Chin!
Goran Reljici is simply scary! The Cro Cop fighter took on Slavic and subbed them or blasted them till he came to the UFC. His first fight he was getting owned by Gouveia, but he did not give up and no matter what hit him he kept going forwards. The fight ended when a tired and punched out Gouveia got caught by the constant power shots and went out to the Croatians fists. His last fight in the UFC was not exactly what he expected. After a back and forth battle at UFC 110 against CB Dollaway the grappler, striker lost a decision after being out wrestled by the Arazona grappler
I am going with the not so popular Goran to KO/TKO Grove. I think Grove has a better chance of winning a decision against the Gracie trained Grappler than he does locking in a sub or getting a KO…Yah, forget the KO. I see it being much like the Munoz fight were he uses his length to stay away until Goran figures out the range and drops the Hawaiian and ends his run in the UFC.

Main Bouts (On Pay-Per-View):
The main card seems to be set up to answer a few questions and have four fights that will be pretty guaranteed to deliver a action packed match up that will be going at break neck pace…so even if Lesnar and Carwin prove to be as dull as Silva has been in the past we will have a good showing.

-Kurt Pellegrino vs. George Sotiropoulos
Pellegrino has had a lot of big name fights. His first fight was against Mac Danzig and he battled the grappler to a standstill and got the nod. Pellegrino is a BJJ black belt who has great wrestling and can take a punch. He proved that against Drew Fickett who blasted and blasted him till he could not win and ended up getting a choke. He came back to the UFC after that loss to beat Junior Assuncao by RNC, Nate Mohr by Heel hook and finally took on up and coming Light weight Joe Stevenson, it was a bar burner but he lost the final judges nod on that one. Not one to stay down he took on Alberto Crane and blasted away till he got the TKO. His next fight was a silly loss to Nate Diaz where he said he just kind of fell into the choke! But he bounced back taking out Thiago Tavares, Robert Emerson and Josh Neer. His last outing was a easy walk over of Fabricio Camoes. So what does all that prove? He is a great BJJ fighter with good wrestling and will fight through most shots and strikes to get the upper hand.
Goerge fights out of Vancouver WA but is a Australian BJJ black belt who is slick and can work a ground fight like no ones business. His ability has brought him wins against Billy Miles, Roman Mitichyan, George Roop and Jason Dent. Working his way up the ladder and through the TUF show he faced his biggest threat to date Joe Stevens. He hung on to Joe for three rounds till he got the judges nod. His grappling is A+ good and his striking is not bad. Sotiropoulos is going to be a dangerous man at Light weight, his BJJ is next level and he really does work hard at pushing the envelope to keep on top of things.
I am going to go with Sotiroppoulos on this one. I just don’t see Pellegrino being a stronger grappler than George and the Ausie will be able to dictate were the fight takes place. Yah, wrestling may make for a boaring win for Kurt, but I don’t see Kurt pulling a dull fight simply to win.

-Stephan Bonnar vs. Krzysztof Soszynski
Nothing has changed since the last time I wrote about this fight, so I am still going with SOszynski who was bashing on Bonner before the accidental head but cost them the honor of showing Stephan the L for his efforts. This will be a short run for Stephan, I think the Winnipeg boy was on his way to destroying Bonnar the first time and he will simply finish him off.
A lot of people know Bonnar for two things, first his fight with much better fighter Forrest Griffin, in which he proved he can take a beating and secondly his love for the ROIDS that got him banned for a year. What they don’t know about this fight is even if they know him better than Kriz, He has less in ring experience. I am still going with Kriz on this one!

-Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown
Two things that can be said for sure about this fight…A)it wont be dull and B)It will probably not go to the ground. I don’t think that this fight will be dull in anyway.
Lytle has the most fight of the night awards than any other fighter in the UFC. This fire fighter from Indianapolis loves to put on a fight and he is good at it. His fights often get bloody and he will fight till there is NOTHING left for either fighter to win. This fighter embodies the “two tigers” mentality of fighting…one dies in the fight…the other after! His fights are those that stories are told about..they might not be the head line but they sure as hell keep you coming back for more. He has a laundry list of great fights…starting with Jason Delucia, Dave Menne, Daisuke Ishii, Shonie Carter, Nick Diaz, Aaron Riley, Derrick Noble, Robbie Lawler, Pete Spratt, Tiki Ghoshin, Ron Jhun, Karo Parisyan, Joe Riggs, Matt Serra, Matt Hughes, Matt Brown (won the first match up), Thiago Alves, Kos, Marcus Davis and many other great fights. Two things to be noted…One he has never been KO’d and two….he has never been subbed!
Matt Brown is a slugger with big heart. His ground game is good but not as good as Lytle. The immortal has one glaring issue…he trains with Team Jorge Gurgel…when are people going to learn? The vet of 19 Pro fights has battled Lytle before and lost via choke. But he also is the owner of 11 impressive and crazy fight wins. He has a good mix of 6 KO’s and 5 subs. However he tends to lose his fights by sub…again…Gurgel is a BJJ fight trainer…Really? Prior to the UFC Brown waged war with the undercard champions in the AFC and a million other little events. He faced Matt Arroyo and proved he was on his way…but his pre UFC fight was against Lytle in the UFL, again he lost to choke. But in the UFC he faced Matt Arroyo and clicked his chin then lost a decision, finally grabbed a arm and took out a nobody in UFC 91. He is also fairly well remembered as ending Pete Sell in the UFC 96… the ref was THE WORST I have ever seen. Brown was forced to beat on Sell until the Ref finally got his head out of his Anus and stopped the fight…that is A) How dangerous Brown is and B) what a shitty ref Yves L can be. After the fight that almost made me sick, he took out James wilks and fell to a RNC by much better BJJ fighter Ricardo Almeida.
I don’t see this fight going to the judges, Duh! I am thinking that it will be a slug fest with Lytle looking to end it by Tap out early in the first but it may go longer. I don’t see Brown being able to KO Lytle but I also don’t see his Jitsu as being good enough to hang with Chris. This one is Chris’ to win. I hate saying that because Brown is one of my favorite fighters.

-Chris Leben vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama
Leben is a late replacement for Wandi, who was hurt in training. Leben brings with him a Great record of 20/6 and has faced some great fighters. His only TKO loss which was a KO was to the Current champ, whom he underestimated for sure. Other than that the Hawaii fighter…from Portland… has only suffered two subs and three decision losses. Outside of that he has a huge record of BLASTING guys in the mug and taking heads home with him. He was a bit of a drama queen coming out of the TUF show, but has since grown up and shows that he is now the fighter that we expect him to be as a UFC fighter. Will he be champ, no…but he is one of the toughest gate keepers I have ever seen. His counter punch has put out many fighters who thought they could take out the KO’ King. His battles have included KO wins over Mike Swick, Benji Radach, Jason Thacker, Jorge Rivera, Jorge Santiago, Terry Martin, Alessio Sakara and Aaron Simpson. He is often a after thought in fights that turns to a night mare for people who don’t take him seriously. His loss are to better Bjj fighters or to guys that push the action while moving around out of his reach…like Bisping and Starnes. His only real losses were at the hands of Silva who KO’d him and BJJ guys who tapped him out like Jason Macdonald and Jake Rosholt. Don’t stand and trade with him or you will get KO’d and for gods sake if you wobble him with a punch DUCK! His next punch will put your ears closer together!
Akiyama is the 10th best Middle weight in the world and a Judo fighter with les experience than Leben….but according to most is much better looking. His one loss was a KO loss to a much larger Jerome Lebanner in K1 Heros. Outside of this the Judo fighter has put on a submission clinic and had two NC fights. But most of his opponents had no idea what a submission was. Starting out and staying most of his time in K1 Heros He has faced guys like Carl Toomey, Francois Botha, Melvin Manhoef, Denis Kang, and the like. His fight style has lead to mostly Subs after nice throws…so kinda like Judo…okay…Judo! But the guy has only had one fight against a UFC fighter and that was Alan Belcher, who rocked him and pushed the pace for the first round…if he had the hands of Leben he would have won in that round. Akiyama is better known in the US as the arrogant fighter who told the world that he felt Leben was a lesser challenge than Wandi…and that the girls like him and call him Sexyama.
I don’t see “Sexy” as getting out of this fight with out a scratch or two. I see this fight as being much more of a unknown fight for him. I think that Leben is going to be different from Wandi in just about every way you can be as far as getting ready for a fight. Wandi is a stand up fighter and so is Leben, but really that is about as close together as you can put them. Leben is more of a boxer and Wandi a Thai fighter. The other thing is that while Wandi is aggressive, Leben has that hot button. I see this being a KO win for Leben or a Sub win for Akiyama and at this point I think Leben will take it. Yoshihiro is going to tag Leben and get a face full of mit and eat canvas. I see Akiyma as being way better at grappling, but just wont have the punching power or chin of Leben…and Leben only having been KO’d by Silva…I don’t see Akiyama as being able to KO him…if he does…we have a new run at the title starting!.....But I don’t think so!

-Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin
The Vanilla Gorilla is only 5 fights into a MMA career and already a champion…interesting unless you look at his history. The history outside of WWF fighting is actually real. He was a collegiate wrestler with a crazy record out of the University of Minnesota. He was a NCAA heavyweight champion and then moved into professional wrestling and after that tried his hand at foot ball…and bombed out. His first MMA fight was against the same Freak fighter that Fedor faught, Hong Man Chu…but he ended up facing Min Soo Kim…and took him down and ground him into the mat. He walked into the UFC cocky and tried to take out Frank Mir…Mir showed him his first and only loss when he was sub’d by a leg bar that he said he saw coming. His next fight was against mid card fighter Heath Herring, he could not end the fight but he battered the fighter around long enough to score a win. He then found a championship challenge against Randy Couture. Couture could have avoided the fight, its not like Lesnar had “Earned” the fight…but at the time the division was so lean that a big show boat with a huge mouth was perfect…to bad he caught Couture with a punch to the back of the head and took him down…Yes the Ref should have seen it and DQ’d the fight, but Randy did not complain so what the hell. His next fight was a rematch with an overly cocky Mir. What was Frank thinking letting him hold his arm behind his head and pound on him. The funny thing was that he said the punches did not hurt that much. Brock has been rocked by Randy and by Mir with short punches. But the big man has one skill that you can not avoid, his wrestling.
Carwin has a much better record. 12/0 and most by KO and none of them going to the second. Shane is a Purple belt in BJJ under Jackson and fights out of the Jacksons Submission group out of Colorado. Carwin started off in the WEC, back when they had big boys…and he took out Carlton Jones with punches and went on a run in smaller shows blasting out guys all the way through the 2006-2007 years. His biggest fight was Sherman Pendergarst at ROF. He blasted Pendergarst in the first round. Being brought into the UFC to face Christian Wellisch and probably brought in to drop a believable fight to Wellisch. He took him out in the first round with a huge over hand. He then went against Neil Wain and Gabe Gonzaga. He took both out and Gonzaga was supposed to win. His last fight was against Mir. He used his great stand up wrestling to destroy Mir and his boxing skills to blast the heck out of him and take him out in the first round in a fighter faces the champ match.
This fight is an interesting one. First off Both are great wrestlers. But does that negate the wrestling component…No, it just means we might end up with a dull ass grappling match on the ground. Secondly Carwins Grappling (BJJ) should be much better, but does it work that well against the near 300 pound freak laying on top of you and stopping you from moving? They both have okay hands, but Carwin has WAY better hands and power that will drop a guy…okay has dropped guys…all in the first round. I think Carwin has better hands, better Jitsu and is a good wrestler. If it were only about that I think it would be a cake walk for him, but in this case I think that the fight will hedge on the ability of Lesnar to get the fight to the ground and hold Carwin to the canvas. I am actually going with Carwin on this, I don’t think that Lesnar has pushed the skill levels to the level that he needs it to be at to win a fight l with a talented stand up and ground fighter who can counter his wrestling.

No matter what the outcomes are I am sure that three of the fights on the main card will be Huge. This time out I think that the UFC has put together a great card. Should be fantastic.
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Kensei
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