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UFC 117 Swami predictions

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UFC 117 Swami predictions

Postby Kensei » Thu Aug 05, 2010 10:31 am

UFC 117: AUGUST 7, 2010
venue: Oracle Arena in Oakland, California
UFC 117 has become the carnival barker style show that the UFC needs to draw more WWE Fans to the MMA, problem is, in some ways it is making those old time MMA fans feel a bit sad for the guys like Sonnen who has opened his mouth and made an ass of himself. IF he does not back it up, or when…he will have a big credibility problem going forwards. The UFC has said it is the most stacked card of the year, don’t know about that but it does offer up a few good fights.

Preliminary Bouts (Non-Televised):
The Prelimb fights offer up some solid fights that simply don’t belong on the main card, but a few that could make it on the main card. The funniest fight is Ben Saunders vs Dennis Hallman, the only man to fight and beat Hughes…well a while ago, who has not been chased down and battered by the former champ is always just a breath away from the former champ…but never against him.??? If he makes it past Saunders can we see a fight with Hughes in the future?

-Todd Brown vs. Tim Boetsch (11-3)
Tim Boetsch is back in the fold after earning a few wins in the minors. He is the guy that walked into the UFC and blased David Heath in the mat like a pile driver! Prior to the UFC he was an IFL walk on that lost a hard faught battle to Vladi Matyushenko. He then walked into the UFC and was a HUGE underdog against Heath, he slamed him and blasted him to a TKO win. But he was not so impressive against Matt Hammil and Jason Brilz. After the Brilz fight he was given his walking papers and left to fight in three separate fight shows, making his way back to the UFC was big time for him, but his original opponent had to step out and he now faces new comer Todd Brown.
Todd is a UFC Newbie but actually has a better record than Tim. His fights have been all outside the UFC cage but have been active and in some cases challenging. To date the biggest wins he has had were against Rick Roufus and Josh Hendricks, the first a win, the second a loss.
I don’t expect much from this fight. Todd is new and Tim was over rated, he had one great fight and the rest were okay. I will go with Tim by GNP or Dec on this one….Dont expect fight of the night.

-Dustin Hazelett (12-5) vs. Rick Story (10-3)
McLovin (Dustin) is one of those fighters you can not help but route for. I meen the guy is skinny…more so than athletic, the kind of guy you picture getting picked on in school….a lot! And often finds himself with the strangest facial hair in town…and when you consider the bikers that are at the fights…that’s saying something! His record does not look like something you would expect from the biggest geek on the block however. He has subbed guys like Steven Lynch, Jonathan Goulet, Josh Burkman and Tamdan McCrory (fellow Geek) and only lost to big time strikers and named guys like DeSouza, Koscheck and Daley. The kid is a BJJ stand out in a group of guys that are built like tanks, the skinny kid has skills to win.
Rick Story is a young fighter who likes to mix it up; he has the power to KO guys and also the skills to rip joints on guys to nothing. He has four fights in the UFC, three wins and one loss, but has only lost a decision to a great fighter who can finish you at will. Prior to the UFC he has a good KO win over Wesley Welch a decision win over Jake Ellenberger and some other good outings. The kid is well rounded, but his subs are not going to save him against Hazelett.
This is one of those fights that Rick can win on the feet, and Hazelett can win on the ground, flip it around and Hazelett would be an underdog standing…questionable chin and basically not wanting to stand, and Rick can sub you, but who wants to get in a battle on the ground with someone that much better than you? I think this one goes to the ground and ends quickly when Hazelett pulls on something important of Ricks. Hazelett by Sub.

-Ben Saunders (8-2-2) vs. Dennis Hallman (41-13-2)
Killer B is 4/2 in the UFC having bested fellow TUF fighter Daniel Barrera, Sturdy newbie Ryan Thomas and killing vets like Brandon Wolff and Very durable Marcus Davis. His two losses were to upper level fighter Mike Swick and arguable the second best WW in the UFC Jon Fitch. His stand up is very much improved, his subs are crazy good, and he is starting to look very durable as well. His weakness so far has been wrestling, something he will have to face against Hallman.
Hallman, other than the previously mentioned win over Hughes has had a strange run in the UFC and other promotions. With 4 UFC fights and more than 50 pro fights he has a 1/3 record in the UFC. His losses have mostly been to high end fighters and guys that can overcome his wrestling. His ability to submit guys as well as take them down has frustrated a lot of fighters.
The big difference in the fight will be the stand up, Ben has a much improved and aggressive style of striking and Hallman has a bit of dirty boxing. If this turns into a ground game I think Ben can sub him out, if it stays standing I know he will use knees and elbows to take out Dennis. Dennis has one chance, take the fight down and work a sub or stuff every attempt and grind on Ben for the full three rounds.
I am going with Killer B by TKO/KO early in the first or second round.

-Johny Hendricks (8-0) vs. Charlie Brenneman (11-1)
Johny Hendricks is 8/0 in MMA and comes to the ring with a great wrestling back ground, good punching power but not a lot of submission experience, I would not call him a BJJ Elite…but who cares when you can take guys like amir Sadollah, Justin Haskins and a few others and knock their head off their shoulders with solid punching. This Welterweight newbie only has three fights in the UFC, all wins…two by decision. The fact that he has as many Decisions as he has subs and TKO wins shows he is a wrestler looking for the holy grail…a way to end a fight with out looking like a jail house rape scean for three rounds.
The “Spaniard” or Charlie Brenneman (real Spanish name their….yah, I don’t get the reference) is pretty much a similar fighter, and also new to the UFC, this being his second fight here. However, he has more subs and TKO/KO wins than Hendricks and has only tasted the L word one time…against John Howard. However he has only faced one UFC caliber guy in the UFC and that was at a lower level. His wrestling is fantastic and his power and accuracy is great, but does he have the heart of Johny? Well he has a bigger gas tank, so if it becomes a battle of attrition it is Charlies to win.
I think Johny knows this is a battle of same styles and he will come out swining to win, he will blow his load winning this fight but unless it becomes a slug fest or battle of who has more gas…I think he has it. Win by TKO or Dec/Maj. This is one of the closer fights on the undercard.

-Rodney Wallace (9-2) vs. Phil Davis
I always say “DON’T DO THIS” The Same/Same fights are dull…especially when you put a wrestler in the ring with another wrestler…chances of the largest dry hump session since aunt betties dog Limbo discovered my brothers shin are HUGE! Davis or “Mr.Wonderful is 6/0 in Pro fights, 2 subs, 2 TKOs and 2 decisions…. He has three fights in the UFC, two wins by sub against okay fighters and a wrestling clinic against Brian Stann. Outside the UFC he showed good hands, but inside…not so much.
Wallace or “Sho nuff the master” as his priest likes to call him is 9/2 in pro fights but 6 of his wins were dull ass Decisions as were his 2 losses. His other wins were 2 subs and only 1 TKO…does not look like fight of the night candidate to me! Now the ironic part comes next…his two Losses…were his only two UFC fights! He lost to Stann and Hared Hamman ( I know…who?) in his only two ventures into the ring.
So, UFC match maker Silva does not get points for this fight! My predication is second snor fest of the night with Davis eaking out a “GET THE FUCK OFF ME..RAPE!!!” win over “ I will sho you who the master is” Wallace in a dull ass wrestling match of pick up…slam….Ass rape…Stand up…Repeat war! This is a perfect blue print for arguments that even if you win a UFC fight…if you are dull you should get your ass cut!

-Stefan Struve (19-4) vs. Christian Morecraft (6-0)
Struve is one of those guys that you just hate to fight if you are not near his height…and at almost 7 feet tall…I think you will be hard up to find someone to battle the Swiss Giant…okay he from the Netherlands, but doesn’t “Swiss Giant” sound better than “Dutch Giant”? And sky Scraper? Really?? Anyways the DUTCH fighter is 19/4 and has shown that reach does matter. In the UFC the Lanky fighter has a 3/2 Record. But his record against the good fighters like Dos Santos and Nelson…yah, I said their names together…shows he has a fair way to go. Hell even in his fight with pudgy out of shape Paoul Buentello was HORRIBLE. He won a Majority decision, but the truth is he could not hang with an in shape striker that can find range and over come the length he has…see Dos Santos for proof of that and the good moments that Paul blasted Stefan during their fight. Struve has a great submission arsenal for a European fighter (said with honest shock!) , most of his fellow Europeans have a hard time with melding Punching someone in the face and then ripping a joint…or basically rolling around with other guys…However Struve has mastered the ability to do so…unfortunately it has been Mainly against his fellow Europeans and once against chase Gormly.
Morecraft (who you might be saying) is 6/0 in pro fights and is making his UFC first time trip, the lime light might burn this Newbie as he has faced only six guys of variable skills in the lower ranks. His record does include 4 wins by T/KO and two by sub. And he seems to have heavy hands and a good submission acumen…any is better than facing off against European Grappling only!
I think that Morecraft will have a hard time with the length of Struve and the fight will go the distance with Struve winning and going on to be beat down by a much more experienced fighter in the UFC.

Main Bouts (On Pay-Per-View):
Three of the four fights that we will be paying to see (minus the others that will be thrown in as filler) will make waves in the different UFC weight brackets. Lets face it we already know that the winner of the Heavy weight bang up will go on to face the winner of the title fight next month, the winner of Fitch/Alves will get a repeat against GSP at some point and the winner of Silva vs Sonnen will get to fight a much improved Vitor Belfort..and the loser has a big plate of crow to eat when his jaw heals. The thing is that the card itself has a tone of repercussions that can be caused…but I am having a hard time getting excited for the FIGHTS themselves….read on!

-Junior dos Santos (11-1; #5 Heavyweight) vs. Roy Nelson (15-4)
Okay we get it…fat guy that Dana does not like much is pissing him off by winning fights he should not and the young buck is supposed to stop that and then get a nice reward! But I am not so sure that will happen! First off Cigano is taking a fight with a guy that is almost 30 pounds heavier and has a great grappling back ground…10-20 times better than his! Secondly Cigano is 11/1 and Roy is 15/4…not much different but when you look at the stats a bit better…Roy is 8 TKOs and 4 subs and lost to decisions mostly. Arlovski stopped him with a punch, but prior to that punch he was doing well to defend and press the action! Dos Santos has 8 TKO wins and 3 subs but lost via submission to a understudy at Gracie Fusion in Rio. And his only “true” sub win was by Guillotine FOUR YEARS AGO! Now that is not to say that Dos Santos does not have a shot…he came to the UFC and lit the world up Blasting favorite Fabricio Werdum, but it looked like Werdum did not take the fight at all serious! Then he blasted through Stefan Struve and an old Mirko, a gassing Yvel and then on to a glass chin Gonzaga. I still respect the guys skills but he has yet to face a big name fighter who can stand or has exceptional ground skills and is not scared to us them…and his win over Filipovic was sad…Mirko phoned that one in from the start.
Big country might not make athlete of the year awards or beat Brian Phelps in the pool…or even to the pool! But the Buddha belly owner has some solid striking and some great Jitsu! I think that Dana might not be as happy after this one as many think. His fight with Brendan Schaub and Stefan Struve showed he has POWER backed by gerth! Most of his matches actually show that. He stopped relying on his Jitsu to win after a loss to Josh Curran in Bodog when he could not out smart a grappler with pure Jitsu…suddenly he uses the thread of being laid on by a fat man to get guys to drop their hands and then he puts them to sleep! His last two losses were outside the UFC and he backed them up by taking out to tall and a great striker!
The only way Dos Santos wins this one is if he can start landing shots over and over and not get worried about the fat mans sweeps to the ground and getting landed on by a McDonalds franchise on the way down! He has a punchers chance but from what I have seen that is about all. Roy on the other hand has great hands, a good brain for the fights and comes in with better Jitsu that Cigarano.
I have to piss of Dana here and say that Roy will take this by Decision or sub…or the most shocking KO of the night…having said that I fear that Roy might get KO’d by a much more technical striker..but being under estimated is a great way to win a fight!

-Matt Hughes (44-7; #7 Welterweight)* vs. Ricardo Almeida (12-3)
Only three years older but with 51 pro fights Hughes experience seems to dwarf Ricardos…who has 15 Pro fights…but we forget about the Abbudabe stuff! This fight has become a “Gracie Killer” fight again, silly! Hughes has beat up on Renzo and Royce but really, he has beat way more important Jitsu guys in the MMA world…guys like Penn, Serra, Verissimo, Newton, and others! The fight with Ricardo is more “Old fart vs not so old far”…cant even say young guy! Or wrestler vs Jitsu guy! The fact remains that Hughes, win or lose is not going to move up the welter weight bracket and suddenly want to fight GSP again…not with out soda coming out Dana whites nose and Ed Silva falling over laughing. Matt is truly in the twilight of his fight career and sees the farm as a much safer and nicer place to stay.
Having said that Hughes was an animal, one that only lost 7 fights! The strange thing is he prided himself on going back and beating those he lost to or trying..with the exception of Landi-Jones and Hallman…and Hallman is under contract with the UFC..wonder if that will ever happen? He is a strong wrestler with some good basic subs, but excels at slamming guys and his GNP…and lately abandoning all that to become a kick boxer??? Yup, Hughes out kick boxed Renzo Gracie in what many thought would be a steam roller over Renzo and then Renzo choking the crud out of him…great game plan!
Ricardo is about as pure Jitsu as you can get, Cachorrao is the Pride of Renzo Gracie and has only got to get a guy on the ground to win…and avoid getting blasted in the mean time. Of all his losses the most noted and important to this fight were against Andrei Semenov and Patrick Cote…both were losses by getting his head knocked off by good wrestlers and great strikers. The last loss was a DQ against Lindland at UFC 31. Outside of those losses he has taken guys down and laid on them working subs or flipped around and locked one in. His whole game plan relies on his ripping or choking something on a person till a tap happens or the fight is called when the other guy turns blue!
I see this fight going one of two ways, and only those ways! Huges slams out some hock jockey kick boxing and takes Cachorrao out of the Jitsu game the way he did against Renzo or Ricardo takes Country breakfast off his feet and chokes him out. That’s about it. Having said that Hughes beat up body is looking warn lately and a bit slower, so the kick boxing is safer for him if he can keep distance, But Matt Brown is a much better striker, as is Kendal Grove, and both are younger and faster…and they fell to Ricardo.
I am going with Ricardo, but I also think Hughes is smart enough not to tangle with him on the ground, so I think it will be a Decision win to whom ever can work their game plan, in this case Almeida!

-Clay Guida (26-11) vs Rafael dos Anjos (14-4)
To say that Guida has heart is an understatement, the guy is pure Energizer bunny..and a bit crazy to boot! The walk in face slaps his brother hits him with are probably the hardest punches he takes in a night! If you watch “the carpenter” and you are not a fan…take your pulse and stop calling yourself a MMA fan! Hell he is my wifes favorite all time fighter in the UFC and that shows….she has great taste! The Cromagnon from Chicago is not the best record holder at little guy weight, but he sure has had some off the hook fights and downed some big name guys. Starting off in this fight he will be 6/5 in the UFC, not a great staring point…but when you look at the fights you see the true story. He took Din Thomas, Tyson Griffin, Diego Sanches to the judges, and through HELL to win those fights! Then he battled Roger Huerta and Kenny Florian and made them FIGHT for those wins. He blasted out wins over Marcus Aurelio, Samy Schiavo, Mac Danzig and Nate Diaz to show his heart and wrestling skills can get you far…Now that he is with Jacksons camp he is adding big time skills to his tool box and keeping the heart, it is just a matter of time before he starts subbing guys more often.. go ask Shannon Gugerty what a single camp with Jackson will get you…if he has woke up from the arm Triangle yet!
Dos Anjos is a Jitsu guy that has had 5 UFC fights and is 3/2…so not so far off Guidas record. His first two fights he faced Jeremy Stephens and was put to sleep and then he faced Griffin and was shown what great wrestling can do to great Jitsu! After that he has put up three wins against mid carders who were only okay on the ground, and won two by D and one by stretching out a European arm! Prior to the UFC he faced some ham and eggers in Brazil and over seas and a few in the US but nothing to worry about. The thing with the Gracie Fusion fighter you have to watch is his improvement. In the Etim fight he showed good stand up and stand up defense and even better ground skills.
A lot of people are writing off Guida in this one, even if the betting odds are dead even! I think he has a better chance than most think. First off his training is much better and his ability to produce standing is huge! I am going with Guida on this one by D or TKO, I don’t see Dos Anjos being able to get him in trouble and work his game plan. However, Rafael is dangerous standing and on the ground, Clay has the ability to dictate where he is more comfortable in this one.

-Jon Fitch (22-3; #2 Welterweight)* vs. Thiago Alves (16-6; #3 Welterweight)*
This truly is a “whos next fight” with the number two and number three Welterweight in the UFC and the world facing off it will be wrestler vs Thai fighter! Yah, tell me all about how Alves is a purple or Brown belt in BJJ…look at his stats..he is a Thai boxer! Anyways, Fitch has a much better record, having beat some big name guys and losing 1/1/1! One TKO loss to Wilson Gouvei in 2002,one RNC tap out to Mike Pyle also earlier in 2002 and losing his title shot to GSP by Decision in 2008…so who hasn’t he beat in between the losses…..The problem with Fitch is he is DULL and a pure wrestler that needs to spice up his Decisions with a bit of striking or subs…His last spicy wins were Roan Carneiro and Luigi Fioravanti by RNC’s. No doubt that fitch is the second best wrestler in the UFC’s welter weight club (behind GSP) and he will more than likely continue to be so…but really, who wants a champ that lays on guys and does not even try to do much more than that?
Alves is a different fighter than he was in 2006 when Fitch took him out with an up kick and punches. He also, mysteriously, packed on so much muscle he had to cut the arms out of all his shirts (okay I made the shirt part up)…but he also has not lost to anyone not called GSP since…and he wrecked the rest! Guys like John Alessio, Desouza,Hironaka, Lylte, Parisyan, Hughes and Kos all paid for his loss to fitch and his hunger for a belt.
So, what do I see happening….well, Same old dull ass shit! Fitch will somehow get ahold of Alves, hug him like a first date and then take him down and lay on him…like a first date in jail! The only way that Alves avoids loss by dry hump is to take the LAP kind off his feet the first few seconds of the fight and pull a Diego Sanchez and go all “Yess” on his ass with Knees, fists and elbows till the ref calls the homicide unit! But I think that LAPK (lay and pray king) Fitch will win by Jail house date night special!

-Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen
If I have to tell you who Silva is or what Sonnen has been saying lately then I should first help you with that rock you are under! So, lets see how I can help you out…I got a bad back after all! First off for those of you under the rock, Silva is the guy on an 12 fight win streak, most of which did not go to the judges. Not bad, but the thing you need to know is his last 6 fights were not that great for one reason or another. First off he was dominated by Dan Henderson and waited for him to use up his gas and then he worked a sub in. He then went on to beat James Irvin by KO in a lop sided fight that was kind of like taking a third tier fighter and putting him in against a killer…okay it was exactly that! Then he went on to get dominated by Patrick Cote before Cote took HIMSELF out of the fight! Thales Leites was embarrassingly out gunned and he still did NOTHING to win that fight except own the belt…granted Thales did nothing as well! His next was another embarrassing fight against Forrest Griffin, one that saw the middle weight insult and play with Griffin before KO’ing him off a aggressive surge. Lastly we have the horror that was the Maia fight! Maia did as much as he could before the end of the bell, against a much better striker that gassed out and tried to showboat.
Now for Sonnen! Well Chael is a mouthy fighter who has never been KO’d before, and his one TKO that I can remember was a cut stoppage. The guy is a great wrestler that can sub guys with submission wrestling moves and can KO guys, ask Kyacey Uscola. But since being back in the UFC he has lost to Maia by sub and the majority of his losses have been by this means! He has issues with good BJJ guys and is able to lay on them for three rounds to win the fight…He has NEVER gone five rounds with this approach…and he has a mouth! Some of what he says is true, some is embarrassing to him…and some is down right NUTTY! But he has skills and a brain, but I think he has taken the silence from the other side as a right to go off the deep end. For months he has been spewing trash talk to any camera man he can find…and probably a few Japanese travelers! But this UFC we will see what mouth can do to back up his trash talk…if he cant…will he ever look silly!

So what do we take from this, and a good reason that Sonnen is now the next for him to fight…well four things…one…Silva comes across as a bully and likes to insult his opponents in the fight to get under their skin. Two….Silva does not know how to sell the fight…or any other fight with out the help of a pro carnaval barker! Three….Silva is only good against aggressive opponent that has zero hope of out striking him…and four…Sonnen likes to write checks his ass cant cash!
My guess is that Silva will KO Sonnen for the first time, Sonnen will have egg on his face and leave the UFC with his tale and manhood between his legs and have to find a new job other than fighting…Yah, I know he is a realtor. His only hope is to do the man hug for five rounds and pray he does not walk into a knee, elbow or punch and does not get locked up in a triangle on the way down.

I am so looking forward to the Sonnen fight because the pressure on Sonnen is self inflicted. He could be the first person in UFC history that self implodes due to self imposed pressure.

Even monkeys fall out of trees!
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